Anthropic IPO
# Anthropic IPO
Five independent Yes/No markets ask whether Anthropic's first-day closing IPO
market capitalization is **above $1.5 trillion, $1.75 trillion, $2 trillion,
$2.25 trillion, or $2.5 trillion**.
**IPO cutoff: April 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. New York time (EDT).** A qualifying
first trading day's regular session must have closed by then. The later
evidence deadline does not extend this cutoff.
This is the approved launch specification. Availability and the immutable
terms of each deployed market are shown in the [Skew app](https://app.skew.trade).
## At a glance
| | |
|---|---|
| Question | Will Anthropic's first-day closing IPO market cap exceed the strike? |
| Strikes | $1.5T, $1.75T, $2T, $2.25T, $2.5T |
| Structure | Five separate binary markets, each with its own Yes/No tokens |
| IPO cutoff | April 30, 2027, 11:59 p.m. America/New_York; May 1, 03:59 UTC |
| Resolution sources | The official listing exchange and the final IPO prospectus filed with the securities regulator; [SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/) for a U.S. filing |
| Market cap | Official first-day closing price × post-offering shares outstanding, as defined below |
| Payout | Yes pays 1 USDC if market cap strictly exceeds the strike; otherwise No pays 1 USDC. Equality pays No. |
| Fallback | Each Yes and No token pays 0.50 USDC in the template's fallback cases |
| Settlement | Manual, only after the seven-day evidence window |
Payout amounts are before applicable fees.
## The question and strikes
Each market uses the mainnet `companyIpoFirstDayMarketCap` template. Its
question is “Anthropic first-day market cap above $[threshold]B?”
| Market | Threshold in the template |
|---|---:|
| Above $1.5T | 1,500 billion USD |
| Above $1.75T | 1,750 billion USD |
| Above $2T | 2,000 billion USD |
| Above $2.25T | 2,250 billion USD |
| Above $2.5T | 2,500 billion USD |
These are above-strike markets. Multiple Yes tokens can win. If the established
first-day market cap is $1.8T, the $1.5T and $1.75T markets pay Yes; the other
three pay No. If it is exactly $1.75T, that market pays No.
## Resolution sources and calculation
The **Final Prospectus** is the final prospectus or equivalent filed with the
securities regulator for the offering, including supplements filed by the
evidence deadline. For a U.S. IPO, these are the filings on SEC EDGAR.
The **Listing Exchange** is the regulated exchange the Final Prospectus names
for the listing. If it names several, use the first named exchange that quotes
an offering pricing currency; if none does, use the first named exchange.
The **First Trading Day** is the first day a trade in the offered securities
executes during that exchange's regular session. Conditional and when-issued
trading do not count.
The calculation is:
```text
First-day market cap = Closing Price × Shares Outstanding
```
- **Closing Price:** the Listing Exchange's official closing price for the
offered securities on the First Trading Day. For depositary receipts, divide
the receipt price by the number of shares each receipt represents.
- **Shares Outstanding:** all common or ordinary shares of every class
outstanding immediately after the offering at its final size, excluding
over-allotment shares. Use the Final Prospectus's stated count or a count
determined from its stated figures. If a class has several figures on that
basis, the first in the prospectus summary applies.
The exchange supplies the closing price; the filed prospectus supplies the
share count. The IPO offer price, an intraday high, a private-round valuation,
and an unspecified finance-site market-cap estimate do not replace those inputs.
The result is in U.S. dollars. For another currency, use the IMF representative
rate for the First Trading Day, or its latest earlier rate. If the IMF omits
the currency, use the cross rate from the ECB's euro reference rates; if both
omit it, use its central bank's reference rate. Each source uses the First
Trading Day or its latest earlier available day. If no qualifying rate can be
established, the template's fallback applies.
## What qualifies as the IPO
The offering must be Anthropic's first public offering of common equity for a
regulated exchange listing. Renames and a holding company formed for the
offering count as Anthropic. A different parent, subsidiary, or acquirer does
not.
The offering is disqualified if common equity traded publicly beforehand on a
regulated exchange or a venue open to retail investors without qualification.
Direct listings, SPAC transactions, reverse mergers, and offerings of units,
debt, preferred shares, or depositary receipts that do not represent only
common equity are also disqualified.
An IPO announcement or SEC filing alone does not satisfy the cutoff: the first
regular trading session must have closed by April 30 at 11:59 p.m. New York time.
## Evidence window and manual settlement
The evidence deadline is **seven days after the earlier of**:
1. The First Trading Day's close.
2. The April 30, 2027 IPO cutoff.
Skew resolves manually only after that deadline, using evidence that was public
by it. A correction published by a source before the deadline prevails. A
conflict that the template's rules cannot resolve leaves the fact unestablished.
If there is no earlier qualifying IPO close, the evidence window ends on
**May 7, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. New York time** (May 8 at 03:59 UTC). Settlement
occurs afterward. An earlier qualifying IPO starts the seven-day window earlier.
Neither date permits an IPO after the April 30 cutoff to qualify.
The market resolves to **0.5**, paying 0.50 USDC per token on each side, if:
- Anthropic does not identify a single company under the template.
- The offering is disqualified.
- No qualifying First Trading Day's regular session has closed by the IPO cutoff.
- A required fact remains unestablished by the evidence deadline.
This is a fixed payout per token, not a refund of the price paid to acquire it.
Manual resolution follows the published rules; it does not allow the resolver
to substitute another source, extend the IPO cutoff, or choose a different payout.
The deployed market's on-chain terms are authoritative. These markets are not
sponsored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with Anthropic or the referenced sources.